2025 is off to a chaotic start for marketers. Are we in a recession? That’s the question on everyone’s mind as economic headwinds shift rapidly in response to new tariff policies, increasing calls for boycotting brands like Target and Amazon, and growing economic uncertainty.
With headlines coming fast and furious, many brands are wondering how to adapt their marketing strategies to this economic uncertainty.
To win, you need to understand how these economic circumstances impact consumers and advertisers alike and adjust your marketing for the tumultuous times ahead—without risking your brand’s long-term success.
Are We in a Recession? How Tariffs, Boycotts, and Economic Uncertainty Are Reshaping Marketing in 2025
Recent economic turbulence has led to a bumpy few days for the stock market, and the downturn will likely continue: according to eMarketer forecasting, a US recession is significantly more likely now than the previous 20-30% range due to volatility, trade tensions, and slipping consumer confidence.
How do tariffs impact the economy?
Tariffs are top of mind for businesses and consumers alike as policies continue to shift seemingly by the hour. President Trump recently announced sweeping tariffs across imports, including a 10% baseline tariff affecting all countries except Canada and Mexico and a blanket 25% tariff on auto imports.
More duties on specific countries were set to take effect on April 9th, but the administration announced that they would stay at 10% for all countries for a 90-day period (except for China, which now faces a 125% tariff). We still don’t know for sure what tariffs will be in effect after the 90 days or what retaliatory measures other countries may take.
No matter what, Americans can likely expect higher prices for imported goods—which could have a major impact on shoppers’ already-stretched budgets.
What does boycotting mean in today’s economic climate?
Consumers are also expressing increasing frustration with companies’ political affiliations and policies. As some businesses have begun to roll back diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs, audiences have called for boycotts against companies including Target, Amazon, and Nestlé.
But are these boycotts impacting the bottom line or just brand perception?
While boycotts can be an important indicator of consumer sentiment, they often don’t make much of a dent in profits. In fact, during a February 28th economic blackout in response to DEI policies, consumer spending dipped only 3% year-over-year, which is within normal daily fluctuations, according to Bloomberg Second Measure’s US Consumer Spend Index.
How Wpromote clients are tackling economic uncertainty
Wpromote confirmed a similar impact across our clients using our proprietary tech platform, Polaris. We tracked sales for more than 50 retail advertisers during the boycott and saw that total sales on February 28 dipped less than 1% compared to other Fridays in February.
Our social media analysis revealed that boycott-related hashtags barely gained any traction. Our benchmark for virality is a hashtag that accelerates from zero to 100,000 mentions within a few hours. The boycott’s main hashtags—#economicblackout and #economicboycott—only reached 60,000 mentions in that timeframe.
How the economic downturn is impacting consumer and advertiser behavior
Consumer sentiment was already dropping through the start of 2025, but it’s plummeted in response to the new tariffs. American shoppers are feeling pessimistic about everything from rising prices to the labor market. According to the University of Michigan’s Joanne Hsu, two thirds of people anticipate unemployment going up in the year ahead; the worst since 2009.
And they’re not alone–if the economic downturn continues, many brands will likely resort to reducing ad budgets to cut costs.
How consumers are responding to volatility
Higher prices may drive consumers to focus on purchasing essentials rather than spending on discretionary items. They may also seek cheaper alternatives to products or services or otherwise reduce spending. Shoppers will be looking for value, giving brands that offer basic or more affordable products an advantage.
Source: eMarketer
Advertisers are also feeling the heat, and that pressure is coming not just from the economy but from consumers themselves. In a polarized political climate, it’s easy for brands to run afoul of audience opinion when it comes to current events and risk alienating some of their customers.
While some brands rolling back DEI programs may have done so in response to the shifting state of US politics, these businesses have unintentionally turned off customers who consider these policies when making purchasing decisions. According to eMarketer, 77% of shoppers were willing to stop buying from brands that aren’t supporting diversity.
Will marketers be cutting ad budgets in 2025?
A similar principle applies to overall ad spending. As concerns around 2025 tariffs mount, many brands are considering cutting back on advertising budgets: according to the IAB, more than half (60%) of advertisers expect tariff pressures to lead to a 6-10% decline in ad budget.
Source: eMarketer
But knee-jerk reactions when it comes to marketing can often do more harm than good. Among Wpromote’s clients, we’ve noted that many businesses are in a fact-finding phase, trying to understand the evolving tariff situation before making drastic decisions. Instead of making dramatic spending cuts, they’re waiting to see how the situation develops.
Some brands are viewing the current economic uncertainty as an opportunity to future-proof their businesses by investing in brand growth while competitors might be pulling back. Brands are exploring shifts in media spend rather than cutting budgets outright, including increasing investment in upper-funnel marketing like OTT (over-the-top streaming ads) and retail media.
There’s increasing interest in channels that offer more flexibility and control (like digital out-of-home and programmatic buying) versus more rigid commitments like linear TV upfronts.
What brands can do to prepare for economic uncertainty
Brands looking to reach shoppers in the current economic climate will need to adapt to their audiences’ changing needs and shopping habits.
You should be making adjustments to your marketing now to prepare for future economic changes. Consider the following strategy updates:
- Data-driven decision-making: Leverage intelligence tools like our proprietary Polaris Growth Planner, a high-velocity media mix model that integrates macroeconomic factors like consumer confidence index data and inflation rates, to understand both your brand’s individual audience and broader trends and achieve accurate predictive modeling and scenario planning.
- Scenario planning: Run simulations on different spending strategies to anticipate potential impacts. This includes understanding how shifting media budgets might affect long-term growth and profitability rather than just reacting impulsively to short-term pressures.
- Brand building & marketing adjustments: Don’t make the mistake of cutting brand-building efforts in favor of short-term direct response marketing. Past economic downturns have shown that maintaining or increasing brand investment can lead to long-term gains.
- Flexibility & agility: Emphasize an agile strategy and budget so you can quickly adapt to changes while maintaining strategic intent. Make informed decisions rather than reacting impulsively to immediate economic pressures.
As you make these changes to your strategy, you should also be updating your messaging to fit today’s climate. Make shoppers feel like your brand is on their side by acknowledging economic impacts, emphasizing your product’s value to justify higher prices, and offering sales or discounts.
Source: Holabird Sports
As overwhelming as 2025 can be, from politics to the economy, the worst thing you can do is overreact. Instead of making big changes like cutting budgets immediately, take a step back and consider how your brand can still reach customers and how you can continue to build your brand long-term, rather than just optimizing for today.
Looking for more insights on how to navigate today’s shifting marketing landscape? Check out our white paper for our experts’ take on media in 2025.