Scroll Interrupted: What Happens If TikTok Gets the Boot?
Since April 2024, when President Biden signed the “TikTok Ban” bill into law, critics and creators alike have wondered what a true ban will mean for the app. The law requires TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to divest from TikTok by January 19, 2025, or face a ban in the United States.
While the outcome is still uncertain, marketers need to start preparing now for what a ban will look like for their strategy and make contingency plans for what to do if this powerful social media platform isn’t available by the end of the month.
As the situation continues to develop in real time, we’re breaking down everything you need to know about why the ban exists, what will happen to the app if it’s banned in the US, and what it all means for advertisers.
Where the ban stands with lawmakers right now
Arguments about whether or not the new TikTok law could be considered “unconstitutional” were heard in September by the US Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, which ultimately decided to uphold the law. Despite the ruling, there’s still an opportunity for the Supreme Court to overturn the decision or extend the sale’s deadline during the January 10 hearing.
As if things weren’t uncertain enough, President-elect Donald Trump introduced another potential wrinkle, filing an amicus brief asking the Supreme Court to delay the ban until he takes office on January 20, 2025. While Trump has recently been pro-TikTok and shared his appreciation for the app in the press, his support hasn’t always been so clear: Trump also chose Brendan Carr to lead the FCC, who outlined an agenda for 2025 that included banning TikTok. It’s hard to tell where exactly the new administration will stand on the issue in the future.
Lawmakers’ biggest fear is that Chinese national security laws could force ByteDance to share US user data with China’s government, even though TikTok’s US information is stored on US-based Oracle servers.
Another issue is TikTok’s powerful algorithm, which some are concerned could manipulate public opinion. TikTok and ByteDance have continuously denied these allegations, with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew appearing in front of Congress to refute the claims.
This is a developing situation, and there’s still no telling what could happen in the eleventh hour with a new presidential administration on the horizon. Luckily, we’re not completely in the dark about what a US ban might look like. Since countries like India and Afghanistan have already implemented bans on the app, we have some idea of what might be coming our way.
What will happen to TikTok if there is a ban?
If a ban does happen, the first move you can expect is that TikTok will be removed from Apple’s App Store and Google Play on January 19.
Source: CBC
Even after the app is gone from stores, existing users who already have the app will still be able to access it via their devices. But that doesn’t mean TikTokers are grandfathered in: without updates or support, the features on the platform we’ve come to know and love will deteriorate until the app is no longer usable.
This won’t be an overnight change. The process will likely take a few weeks or even months before the platform fully comes to a halt. Since the app is updated a few times per month–and those aren’t always major updates–the impact may not be noticeable immediately.
What the law means for advertisers
This delay will also apply to the ads side of the app. TikTok shared that it will remain business as usual, and advertisers can expect to still be able to buy ads as they do now via the Ads Manager.
Although updates to the overall app will no longer happen in the US in the event of a ban, TikTok will still be able to make updates to Ads Manager. But while the ads may still be functioning, the main concern for marketers is how long the app will be usable for the audiences they’re trying to reach.
The good news: even if a ban goes into effect, there will still be time after the decision for marketers to determine a backup course of action while letting current budgets and campaigns run until performance or the app declines.
For marketers worried about ad spend, TikTok has shared that they will honor refunds for reserved inventory if the app is banned. Of course, this won’t be an issue for everyone; many advertisers will not need refunds and can pause campaigns if and when that’s necessary. But the move shows that TikTok is aware of the issue and is looking to provide assurance to advertisers as the situation develops.
Despite these efforts, a ban could still be detrimental to advertisers. It will be a challenge to fully replace TikTok’s unique mix of authentic community and diverse, attention-grabbing short content if the app is unavailable.
TikTok has become an important driver in areas like commerce and social search, so brands will also need to find new platforms to fill those functions. Losing the app would be a major blow to US social commerce, which eMarketer reported grew by 26% in 2024 to $71.6 billion–heavily influenced by the growth of TikTok Shop.
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Source: eMarketer
What’s next for marketers in a post-TikTok world
Although there’s a strong possibility that a TikTok ban could be coming our way by the end of January, even a US ban doesn’t mean TikTok will be gone completely–especially since TikTok will still be available in other countries.
If you haven’t already, your team needs to start making a contingency plan so your TikTok media can be reinvested first into Meta Reels and/or YouTube Shorts. Keep in mind that Lemon8, which many have touted as a possible replacement, will be impacted by the January 19 ban date since it’s also owned by ByteDance.
You should also start taking stock of your strategy to see where your audience is, whether you’re over-dependent on any one platform, and what TikTok alternatives might work for your brand. Get started by taking action right now:
- Evaluate your TikTok audiences and other channels they might be using
- Identify the most important touchpoints that occur on TikTok
- Explore alternative platforms and start testing to identify other ways to reach your audiences
- Research relevant competitors, brand hashtags, or specific keywords in new channels to assess the kinds of conversations people are having and whether the platform is the right fit for your brand
- Identify the kinds of creative and content that are currently popular on those platforms, including influencer opportunities
We’ll continue to provide updates as we hear more news about the law and how it might impact the rest of your 2025 planning. Until the ban is put into effect and we’ve seen the implications, you should still consider TikTok as a channel pending your target audience’s usage of the platform and performance toward your business goals.
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